# Draft \u2014 VPL Vinpearl: TCBS First Analysis<\/p>\n
—<\/p>\n
Just two days after the VN-Index “evaporated” 62 points due to forced liquidations, TCBS released its first analysis report on VPL \u2014 Vinpearl, Vietnam’s largest tourism, resort, and entertainment enterprise. The stock is hovering around 77,600 VND, 27% lower than its 52-week high. Amidst the market panic, this “super stock” from the Vin-family is being carefully dissected \u2014 what’s worth noting?<\/p>\n
## “From Loss to Profit” \u2014 The operational engine is truly healthy<\/p>\n
The biggest highlight in the 24-page report isn’t revenue or market cap \u2014 it’s the “turnaround” of the core segment. In 2023, Vinpearl’s accommodation and entertainment segment alone had a gross loss of 3,087 billion. In 2024: a profit of 940 billion. Cash gross margin (before depreciation) increased from 32.5% to 48.6% \u2014 for every 100 VND in revenue, nearly 49 VND is gross profit.<\/p>\n
This is real cash flow, not the “accounting profit” style from one-time real estate transfers. Net profit from core business operations broke out from 581 billion (2024) to 2,800 billion (2025). The operational engine is strengthening thanks to recovering room occupancy, a record 21.5 million international visitors (+22%), and non-room spending taking up an increasing share.<\/p>\n
But there is a “but.”<\/p>\n
## A beautiful balance sheet \u2014 but is the price worth it?<\/p>\n
Vinpearl underwent a financial “major surgery” before going public: debt decreased from 22,500 billion to 11,600 billion \u2014 nearly half. Equity increased more than 4 times to 36,598 billion. The debt-to-equity ratio is only 0.3x \u2014 extremely safe for a capital-intensive business like resorts.<\/p>\n
However, the stock price is not “safe” in terms of valuation. P\/B is 3.7x \u2014 lower than the regional average (6.2x) but higher than Minor International (2.8x) or Central Plaza (2.1x). 2026 forward P\/E is ~47x \u2014 double the regional level (13\u201323x). 2026 projected ROE is only 7.7%, and it won’t approach 9.3% until 2030. Simply put: you are paying a “premium” price for a “premium” business, but the profitability hasn’t caught up to that “premium” level yet.<\/p>\n
## The tourism wave and the shadow of Sun Group<\/p>\n
Vinpearl benefits from a record tourism wave: 21.5 million international visitors, with a target of 25 million by 2026. The Vingroup ecosystem \u2014 Vinhomes, Vincom, VinFast \u2014 creates internal guest traffic that is hard to replicate.<\/p>\n
But Sun Group isn’t sleeping. In Phu Quoc \u2014 the focus destination for APEC 2027 \u2014 they have deployed 12,000 rooms and 13 international brands (W Hotels, Conrad\u2026). Vinpearl is strong in beaches and islands, while Sun Group is strong in mountains and cable cars (Ba Na, Fansipan) \u2014 segments where Vinpearl has little presence. Additionally, VPL’s free-float is only ~5% \u2014 low liquidity means the price can easily fluctuate wildly during “red” market sessions.<\/p>\n
## A balanced perspective<\/p>\n
VPL has a good foundation: #1 in scale, an integrated model that’s hard to copy, and operations that have truly strengthened. 2026 plan: revenue of 16,000 billion, net profit of 3,000 billion (+172% YoY). But profit still depends on one-time financial income, no dividends for 2024\u20132026, and the P\/E isn’t cheap yet.<\/p>\n
TCBS conclusion: long-term prospects are good, but the margin of safety for new buys is still thin. It’s best to be patient and wait for accumulation at a deeper discount price, when ROE improves toward regional levels.<\/p>\n
—<\/p>\n
*This article is for informational and educational purposes only, not investment advice. Views and recommendations (if any) belong to the issuer of the cited report. You should do your own research or consult a licensed professional before making decisions.*<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
# Draft \u2014 VPL Vinpearl: TCBS First Analysis — Just two days after the VN-Index “evaporated” 62 points due to forced liquidations, TCBS released its first analysis report on VPL \u2014 Vinpearl, Vietnam’s largest tourism, resort, and entertainment enterprise. The stock is hovering around 77,600 VND, 27% lower than its 52-week high. Amidst the market panic, this “super stock” from the Vin-family is being carefully dissected \u2014 what’s worth noting? 📌 TL;DR \u2014 What TCBS is saying: VPL is the #1 tourism company in Vietnam: 35 hotels (>17,500 rooms), 16 amusement parks, 6 golf courses Operational engine is getting stronger: Core gross profit went from negative 3,087 billion (2023) \u2192 positive 940 billion (2024); company-wide gross margin 19.9% \u2192 34.7% But 2026 forward P\/E is ~47x \u2014 much higher than the regional average (13\u201323x), and 2026 ROE is only 7.7% TCBS recommendation: wait for accumulation at a deeper discount price zone ## “From Loss to Profit” \u2014 The operational engine is truly healthy The biggest highlight in the 24-page report isn’t revenue or market cap \u2014 it’s the “turnaround” of the core segment. In 2023, Vinpearl’s accommodation and entertainment segment alone had a gross loss of 3,087 billion. In 2024: a profit of 940 billion. Cash gross margin (before depreciation) increased from 32.5% to 48.6% \u2014 for every 100 VND in revenue, nearly 49 VND is gross profit. This is real cash flow, not the “accounting profit” style from one-time real estate transfers. Net profit from core business operations broke out from 581 billion (2024) to 2,800 billion (2025). The operational engine is strengthening thanks to recovering room occupancy, a record 21.5 million international visitors (+22%), and non-room spending taking up an increasing share. But there is a “but.” ## A beautiful balance sheet \u2014 but is the price worth it? Vinpearl underwent a financial “major surgery” before going public: debt decreased from 22,500 billion to 11,600 billion \u2014 nearly half. Equity increased more than 4 times to 36,598 billion. The debt-to-equity ratio is only 0.3x \u2014 extremely safe for a capital-intensive business like resorts. However, the stock price is not “safe” in terms of valuation. P\/B is 3.7x \u2014 lower than the regional average (6.2x) but higher than Minor International (2.8x) or Central Plaza (2.1x). 2026 forward P\/E is ~47x \u2014 double the regional level (13\u201323x). 2026 projected ROE is only 7.7%, and it won’t approach 9.3% until 2030. Simply put: you are paying a “premium” price for a “premium” business, but the profitability hasn’t caught up to that “premium” level yet. ## The tourism wave and the shadow of Sun Group Vinpearl benefits from a record tourism wave: 21.5 million international visitors, with a target of 25 million by 2026. The Vingroup ecosystem \u2014 Vinhomes, Vincom, VinFast \u2014 creates internal guest traffic that is hard to replicate. But Sun Group isn’t sleeping. In Phu Quoc \u2014 the focus destination for APEC 2027 \u2014 they have deployed 12,000 rooms and 13 international brands (W Hotels, Conrad\u2026). Vinpearl is strong in beaches and islands, while Sun Group is strong in mountains and cable cars (Ba Na, Fansipan) \u2014 segments where Vinpearl has little presence. Additionally, VPL’s free-float is only ~5% \u2014 low liquidity means the price can easily fluctuate wildly during “red” market sessions. ## A balanced perspective VPL has a good foundation: #1 in scale, an integrated model that’s hard to copy, and operations that have truly strengthened. 2026 plan: revenue of 16,000 billion, net profit of 3,000 billion (+172% YoY). But profit still depends on one-time financial income, no dividends for 2024\u20132026, and the P\/E isn’t cheap yet. TCBS conclusion: long-term prospects are good, but the margin of safety for new buys is still thin. It’s best to be patient and wait for accumulation at a deeper discount price, when ROE improves toward regional levels. — *This article is for informational and educational purposes only, not investment advice. Views and recommendations (if any) belong to the issuer of the cited report. You should do your own research or consult a licensed professional before making decisions.*<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3113,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"pagelayer_contact_templates":[],"_pagelayer_content":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[814],"tags":[1170,1175,1169,1172,1174,1171,1173],"class_list":["post-3112","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-msb-vpl-joins-etf-basket","tag-resort","tag-stock-analysis","tag-tcbs-report","tag-tourism","tag-vingroup-stock","tag-vinpearl","article","has-background",false,"dark-theme-","has-excerpt","has-avatar","has-author","has-nickname","has-date","has-comment-count","has-category-meta","has-read-more","has-title","has-post-media","thumbnail-"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t