VPL Vinpearl: TCBS First Analysis — Operations Are Strong, But Valuation Isn’t Cheap Yet

# Draft — VPL Vinpearl: TCBS First Analysis

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Just two days after the VN-Index “evaporated” 62 points due to forced liquidations, TCBS released its first analysis report on VPL — Vinpearl, Vietnam’s largest tourism, resort, and entertainment enterprise. The stock is hovering around 77,600 VND, 27% lower than its 52-week high. Amidst the market panic, this “super stock” from the Vin-family is being carefully dissected — what’s worth noting?

## “From Loss to Profit” — The operational engine is truly healthy

The biggest highlight in the 24-page report isn’t revenue or market cap — it’s the “turnaround” of the core segment. In 2023, Vinpearl’s accommodation and entertainment segment alone had a gross loss of 3,087 billion. In 2024: a profit of 940 billion. Cash gross margin (before depreciation) increased from 32.5% to 48.6% — for every 100 VND in revenue, nearly 49 VND is gross profit.

This is real cash flow, not the “accounting profit” style from one-time real estate transfers. Net profit from core business operations broke out from 581 billion (2024) to 2,800 billion (2025). The operational engine is strengthening thanks to recovering room occupancy, a record 21.5 million international visitors (+22%), and non-room spending taking up an increasing share.

But there is a “but.”

## A beautiful balance sheet — but is the price worth it?

Vinpearl underwent a financial “major surgery” before going public: debt decreased from 22,500 billion to 11,600 billion — nearly half. Equity increased more than 4 times to 36,598 billion. The debt-to-equity ratio is only 0.3x — extremely safe for a capital-intensive business like resorts.

However, the stock price is not “safe” in terms of valuation. P/B is 3.7x — lower than the regional average (6.2x) but higher than Minor International (2.8x) or Central Plaza (2.1x). 2026 forward P/E is ~47x — double the regional level (13–23x). 2026 projected ROE is only 7.7%, and it won’t approach 9.3% until 2030. Simply put: you are paying a “premium” price for a “premium” business, but the profitability hasn’t caught up to that “premium” level yet.

## The tourism wave and the shadow of Sun Group

Vinpearl benefits from a record tourism wave: 21.5 million international visitors, with a target of 25 million by 2026. The Vingroup ecosystem — Vinhomes, Vincom, VinFast — creates internal guest traffic that is hard to replicate.

But Sun Group isn’t sleeping. In Phu Quoc — the focus destination for APEC 2027 — they have deployed 12,000 rooms and 13 international brands (W Hotels, Conrad…). Vinpearl is strong in beaches and islands, while Sun Group is strong in mountains and cable cars (Ba Na, Fansipan) — segments where Vinpearl has little presence. Additionally, VPL’s free-float is only ~5% — low liquidity means the price can easily fluctuate wildly during “red” market sessions.

## A balanced perspective

VPL has a good foundation: #1 in scale, an integrated model that’s hard to copy, and operations that have truly strengthened. 2026 plan: revenue of 16,000 billion, net profit of 3,000 billion (+172% YoY). But profit still depends on one-time financial income, no dividends for 2024–2026, and the P/E isn’t cheap yet.

TCBS conclusion: long-term prospects are good, but the margin of safety for new buys is still thin. It’s best to be patient and wait for accumulation at a deeper discount price, when ROE improves toward regional levels.

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*This article is for informational and educational purposes only, not investment advice. Views and recommendations (if any) belong to the issuer of the cited report. You should do your own research or consult a licensed professional before making decisions.*